Thursday, April 24, 2008

Titan Machinery (TITN)



Stock of the Day

Titan Machinery Inc. (TITN)

Friday’s Closing Price: TITN - $23.97


Sector: Retail

Industry: Retail/ Wholesale Building Products

52-week Price: $9.18 - $24.09


February 25, 2008: TITN - $19.70


Three stocks are catching my eye while making multiple screens over the past couple of weeks. MTL is up over 13% in less than two weeks since I highlighted it in a post titled Basic Materials (Oil) Stocks Making New Highs


Trading momentum is paying-off in the current market environment. Swing trading breakouts making new highs on volume at least 100% larger than the average is king. It’s working so pay attention and be smart while putting on trades. MTL is no longer a buy since it has become extended but TITN and RIO may be setting up for new 52-week highs.


April 14, 2008: TITN - $22.39


TITN – 22.39, solid young stock with an ideal entry point near $20 (looking good)



Fourth quarter earnings are scheduled for Monday, April 28, 2008. I would not be a buyer until after earnings are released (this event will shape my view on the stock and a potential position). Last quarter’s net income rose to $2.7 million, or 36 cents a share, from $0.8 million, or 13 cents a share, a year ago (sales increased 67% to $132 million).


My ideal accumulation area is between $19 and $22 with the best entry coming along the 50-day moving average, which seems to be providing support. The weekly chart is showing clear accumulation by institutional investors as most up-weeks are happening on larger volume while down-weeks are happening on lighter volume.


I will definitely be interested in a position since this stock has been making my nightly screens and scans since February. I have learned that the best stocks are the ones that continually make these scans (that is fact since I started investing with this method in 2001).


Potential Trade Set-up:

Entry: $21.00

Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k

Stop Loss is 10% or $18.90

Number of Shares: 476

Position Size is $10,000

Risk is $2.10

Target is unknown (too little information)


Institutional Analysis:

Held By Institutions: 42.75%

Total Held by Institutions: 62

Money Market: 43

Mutual Fund: 18

Other: 1


New Positions: 60

Positions Sold: 0

Shares Held: 7.43M

Shares Held Previous Period: 0.13M


Shares Bought: 7.3M

Shares Sold: 0

Value of Shares Bought: $134.1M

Value of Shares Sold: $0


Top Institutional holders; Shares Held:

Systematic Financial Management, L.P.; 711,600

Trafelet Capital Management L.P.; 528,500

Heartland Value Fund; 350,000

Heartland Advisors Inc.; 350,000

Wasatch Advisors Inc.; 325,000


Key Fundamental Numbers:

Market Cap.: $320.3M

Outstanding Shares: 13.4M

Float: 6.0M

P/E (TTM): 46.02x

PEG Ratio: 2.09x

EPS Growth (MRQ): 229.23%

Revenue Growth (MRQ): 66.99%

3-Yr Earnings Rate: 54%

3-Yr Sales Rate: 34%




Net Income (thousands):

FY 2007: 3,720

FY 2006: 2,746

FY 2005: 1,270

FY 2004: 164

FY 2003: 416


Revenue (thousands):

FY 2007: 292,987

FY 2006: 193,758

FY 2005: 135,781

FY 2004: 79,269

FY 2003: 54,189


Earnings:

FY 2009: $0.77

FY 2008: $0.90


Company Summary:

Titan Machinery Inc. owns and operates a network of agricultural and construction equipment stores in North America. It is a retail dealer of Case IH Agriculture equipment and a retail dealer of New Holland Agriculture, Case Construction and New Holland Construction equipment in the United States. The Company sells and rents agricultural and construction equipment, sells parts, and services the equipment operating in the areas surrounding its stores. The agricultural equipment it sells and services includes machinery and attachments for uses ranging from large-scale farming to home and garden use. The construction equipment it sells and services includes heavy construction and light industrial machinery for commercial and residential construction, road and highway construction and mining applications. In January 2008, the Company acquired Avoca Implement and Greenfield Implement, two CaseIH farm equipment dealerships in Southwest Iowa.



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